|Exploring Mars: Mars Mission Risks
Artist's rendering of the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft on its way to Mars
As the Odyssey spacecraft makes it way toward Mars, mission
engineers are working hard to prepare for arrival at Mars at 0230
Universal time Oct. 24 (7:30 p.m. Pacific time Oct. 23). Join Charles
Whetsel, chief engineer of the Mars Exploration Program, and Matt
Landano, 2001 Mars Odyssey project manager, as they describe the
hard yet rewarding road to Mars.
Risky Business: A Mission to Mars
Imagine planning for a long sailing voyage. Your survival depends
upon the sturdiness of your craft, planning and skill. Stowed onboard
must be all the provisions, tools and hardware you'll need. Your
knowledge and judgment about how to navigate through wind,
weather and waves will be crucial to staying afloat.
You've learned from the successes and misfortunes of previous
voyages. You won't make the same mistakes, but you know you may
encounter some new challenges. When something breaks, you will
need to be able to work around it. Beneath the surface may lurk
something unexpected. Within the bowels of your sailing craft,
there may be a weakness or a flaw that won't make itself known
until later. And it may get you in the end. Vigilant, wary, you're
ready for the best and prepared for the worst, for the things you
don't know will happen.
In a way, space engineers say, that's a little of what it's like
to work on a mission to Mars.
Earning a Degree from the School of Hard Knocks
Charles Whetsel is the chief engineer of the Mars Program.
Thirty missions to Mars
have been mounted by the space agencies of the U.S., Japan, and the
former Soviet Union. Of the U.S. missions, 10 out of 15, or two-thirds,
have succeeded. Only one of 16 Soviet missions succeeded, and the
lone Japanese spacecraft is currently delayed in arrival at Mars due
to propulsion problems.
Charles Whetsel, now chief engineer of the Mars Exploration
Program, points to the single most instructive lesson of his
engineering career. He was two years into his first job out of
college. On Aug. 21, 1993, as usual, he showed up for his 6 o'clock,
Saturday night shift on the "systems" console for the Mars
Observer mission. Only the spacecraft didn't. It disappeared as its
propellant tanks were being pressurized in preparation for an
engine firing that was to have placed the spacecraft into orbit around
Mars. An investigation later determined that warm fuel had condensed
in a cold part of the propellant lines too close to the liquid oxidizer,
sparking an explosion.
"I'd never even thought about it, that I could come in
tomorrow and everything I just invested the last two years in
disappears in the blink of an eye," says Whetsel, now 34.
"That was my big wake up. I was totally incredulous. Your
world changes overnight.
"It affects you on a personal level and it affects everyone you
work with. It's equivalent to finding out your company has gone
bankrupt or something like that. But it's a little more personal than
that. That whole process of losing it, then trying to get it back then
working through the whole failure investigation trying to understand
what went wrong. We were all working together with the
external failure investigation board
on that because we wanted to understand what happened."
As graduates of what Whetsel calls "the school of hard
knocks," he and his colleagues, veterans of a failed mission and
the detailed engineering detective work that followed, became even
more valuable contributors to JPL's space exploration enterprise.
Former Soviet space engineer V.G. Perminov, who led design work
for the U.S.S.R.'s Mars spacecraft program, wrote a publication
called "The Difficult Road to Mars," in which he recounts
that country's string of misadventures to the red planet. He points to
a Russian proverb to help explain the value of lessons learned from
failure: "One beaten person is worth two unbeaten ones."
Whetsel agrees. With a great deal of experience built up through
his involvement in earlier missions, now oversees engineering concerns
for all Mars missions. "Once you've lost one, it colors the way
you look at things. You really push a little harder, you worry a
Mars: So Close, Yet So Far Away
But why have so many Mars missions fallen short of their goal? Is
there something special about Mars that leads spacecraft and the
teams that guide them like moths to a flame? The answer partly has to
do with the sheer number of attempts launched from Earth to the red
planet. "We've sent more things to Mars than any other body except
the Moon, so we've had more opportunities to fail," says Whetsel.
Some compare the record of Mars exploration to that of the early
Moon shots that preceded the astronauts. Many failures occurred early
in the program, but the record improved with experience.
In addition, says Whetsel, many people incorrectly assume Mars is
an easy target to reach because of its relative proximity and many
Earthlike qualities. But just because it's closer to Earth than Jupiter
or Saturn doesn't necessarily make Mars a simpler destination.
Lessons Learned: The Silver Lining
A mix of excitement touched with trepidation is building at JPL,
where, in about a month, engineers will direct NASA's Mars Odyssey
spacecraft to enter orbit around Mars. At the time, Odyssey will be
about 150 million kilometers (93 million miles) from Earth. Communicating
through its 15-watt radio, the spacecraft will be at one of the most
critical junctures of its mission.
It is the first spacecraft to be sent to Mars since the dual loss of
the Mars Surveyor orbiter and lander two years ago. Fresh in the
collective mind of the space exploration engineering community are
recent lessons learned the hard way as the Odyssey team heads
toward its orbit insertion maneuver. Those tough lessons, however,
are considered by many at JPL and at Odyssey contractor Lockheed
Martin Astronautics in Denver, Colo., to be the silver lining ending a
cloudy period for Mars exploration in particular and JPL in general.
The team is acutely aware that thousands of engineering details
have to proceed correctly for the spacecraft to begin its first successful
orbit around Mars. If only one of those details goes wrong, it may
unleash a cascade of events that could cause Odyssey to fail its
entry into Mars' orbit.
Not that the public should expect anything short of a mission
accomplished, says Mars Odyssey Project Manager Matt Landano of JPL:
"I think they ought to be expecting a success. We are doing
everything we reasonably could on Odyssey to reduce risk and maximize
our prospects for success. We clearly aren't going into this thinking
that anything short of success is acceptable. In our minds, it's not
ok to fail. We must succeed."
Mars Orbit Insertion: This IS Rocket Science
This Viking 1 orbiter image shows the thin atmosphere of Mars. The 2001
Mars Odyssey spacecraft will repeatedly brush the top of the atmosphere to
lower and circularize its orbit around Mars.
Following carefully calculated parameters set by navigators and
ground controllers, Odyssey's targeting will be fine-tuned with a
"trajectory correction maneuver" involving a final whisper
of hydrazine gas meted through onboard jets the size of
To enter orbit, Odyssey's propellant tanks, the size of big
beachballs, must first be pressurized, plumbing lines heated, and the
system primed before all 262.8 kilograms of propellant (579.4 pounds)
burns in exactly the right direction for 19.7 minutes.
This maneuver, called the Mars orbit insertion, will brake the
spacecraft's speed, slowing and curving its trajectory into an
egg-shaped elliptical orbit around the planet. In the weeks and
months ahead, in a process called aerobraking, the spacecraft will
repeatedly brush against the top of the atmosphere to reduce the
long, 19-hour elliptical orbit into a shorter, 2-hour circular orbit of
approximately 400 kilometers altitude (about 250-miles) desired for
the mission's science data collection.
"All of this has to be done by remote control," says
Whetsel. During the main engine firing, for instance, "there's no
time for the ground (operations team) to interact with the
spacecraft." The one-way light time to the spacecraft -- the
time it takes a radio signal to travel from the communications dishes
of the Deep Space Network here on Earth to Odyssey at Mars -- will be
about 8.5 minutes during the engine firing. "By the time you see
whether or not things are going well, in reality, it's essentially already
done. So you have to put everything on board the spacecraft ahead
Tapping the Aerobrake
Aerobraking has been used twice before: experimentally at Venus
after the Magellan spacecraft's mission was complete in 1994, and with
the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft when it arrived at Mars in 1997.
The technique uses the spacecraft's solar panels like wings, or a
parachute, to slow it down and lower its orbit, and greatly reduces the
need for propellant that would otherwise be needed to place the
spacecraft in the desired orbit. Complicating Global Surveyor's
aerobraking was a faulty hinge on one of its solar wings. Extra care
had to be taken to keep the wing from tearing off the spacecraft, adding
a year and a half extra to the aerobraking phase of that ultimately
successful mission, which has now returned more data than all other
Mars missions combined.
Mars scientists have long desired to have their instruments in a
low, circular orbit that affords beneficial lighting conditions and a uniform
altitude for photography and other data taking, and Odyssey's
aerobraking phase is designed to deliver that. "But at Mars,
especially, aerobraking comes with its own set of risks," says
Whetsel, who, with his experience on Mars Global Surveyor, may be
the most seasoned aerobraking specialist in the solar system.
[More information on aerobraking and orbits can be found
in "The Basics of Space Flight"]
"Aerobraking relies on a 'Goldilocks' approach," says
Whetsel: "Not too big, not too little, not too deep, not too
shallow, because if it's too deep you'll damage the spacecraft and if it's
too shallow you won't get to the right orbit in time." And if that
happens, to borrow from another fairy tale, the big, bad wolf
will get you.
"Once you start aerobraking, you're putting the spacecraft
through the atmosphere hundreds of times, and the trick is to do that
deep enough to shrink the orbit down so you get to a good geometry
while the lighting is still good, but not so fast that you overheat the
solar arrays," Whetsel said.
That would be easy, says Whetsel, if the Martian atmosphere
were just a big unvarying sphere, "but there are real things like
weather and dust storms that cause the atmosphere to move up
For weeks, in fact, Mars has been in the midst of a
gigantic global dust storm.
Scientists on the Mars Global Surveyor team are using their instruments
to keep a close watch on the storm. A well-designed drag pass through
the atmosphere could doom the mission if, unbeknownst to planners,
a dust storm swelled the atmosphere and snagged Odyssey out of the
Martian sky. So data from Global Surveyor will be crucial in guiding
sibling Odyssey through its aerobraking phase.
"The team has to monitor that process on pretty much a daily
basis to see if the atmosphere is growing, how is the spacecraft
responding, are the temperatures ok, are we going fast enough, are
we keeping the spacecraft healthy," says Whetsel.
[See aerobraking interviews and animation at
Will it be 'Bolero' or Lucy and Ethel in the Chocolate Factory?
The pace for Odyssey's aerobraking at Mars will be brisk. Ultimately,
ground controllers will be executing up to 12 drag passes through the
atmosphere each day. "Aerobraking is a very judgment-driven
sort of thing," says Whetsel. "There's a lot of data that you
have to make decisions about. And it's a process that once you've
started, you are pretty much committed to seeing it through."
Whetsel compares aerobraking to listening to 'Bolero': "It starts
out with these big orbits, and there's a rhythm about when you're going
to hit the atmosphere the next time." He drums a desktop to
emphasize the beat. "There's a rhythm about all the things you're
going to have to get ready for on the next orbit. As the orbit shrinks,
the pace picks up and things are happening more rapidly and you either
get in the groove or you don't."
On a more comedic note, he says, "It also reminds me of the
old classic Lucy Show with the chocolates coming by, and as long as
everything's going fine, its going fine, but if you miss one beat, you know
you've really gotta scamper to get back into the rhythm as things are
going. Because as the orbit shrinks the pace gets faster and faster
Stick to Your Principles
Matt Landano is the 2001 Mars Odyssey project manager and author of the
"Landano Principles" that are guiding JPL's engineering efforts.
As the countdown to Odyssey's arrival at Mars continues, and as
new Mars missions for 2003, 2005, 2007 and beyond take shape, the
recent difficult past is still foremost in the minds of the design, assembly,
test and flight teams. JPL's leadership has put new mechanisms in
place to capture and institutionalize the wisdom those painful lessons
Says Landano: "You typically learn a lot more from failure
than you do from your successes. Mainly because when you have a
failure you dig deeply and widely to uncover the root cause of
In 2000, after the loss of the two Surveyor craft, Landano,
veteran of the Mars Viking mission and the Voyager, Galileo and
Cassini missions to the outer planets, was asked to formally
enumerate the engineering principles that have characterized JPL's
space engineering triumphs. He also identified the range of
acceptable trade-offs and the consequences when engineering
principles were skirted. In the process, he says, "I looked at the
things on our past Mars failures that got us, and they are not
high-technology things," he says.
"In a complex system like a spacecraft, about a million little
things have to happen right. The real complex stuff everyone is
watching. Areas that are new technology usually have a hundred eyes
looking at them." But he points to overlooked fundamentals,
including good communication between team members or a hidden
flaw in seemingly minor part as examples of dangerous gremlins.
"It's the things that you've done many times that you think you
know how to do," Landano says. "Somehow, that's the
thing that bites you."
"It's a risky business. And if you let your guard down, if you
say 'We know how to do this,' you kind of ease up in your mind or in
the way you do it. But when you fail, it forces you to take stock again
and say, 'Wow, even though I was successful here, look how slim the
margin was. I failed here, and I could have failed over here too.' It
provides you this heightened awareness for processes, completeness,
penetration and applying rigor to everything you do."
Though not yet etched in stone, "Design, Verification,
Validation and Operations Principles for Flight Systems," becoming
more popularly known in the space community as "The Landano
Principles," are now the engineering and management
commandments that JPL and its contractors are following to reduce
risk and increase the reliability of missions.
At the heart of JPL's risk reduction efforts, says Landano, is a
renewed appreciation for margins that must be built into all elements
of a project. "Margins enable a project to make design and
operational tradeoffs that can significantly reduce mission risks,
" he advises. For example, some extra time built into the
schedule allows problems to be solved without the panic that
comes from an impossible deadline. Some extra mass set aside for
the spacecraft may be useful if something needs to be added later
in the design and development process. Provisions for additional
skilled personnel, if needed, could speed the project over difficult
humps if they arise.
"It's all about margin," he says, "especially
when you're trying to do it on a tight schedule, when we're trying to
do missions in a one-year to 18-month period shorter than we've
typically done projects in the past. Because something's got to give
'You Don't Know What You Don't Know'
'Landano's Principles' are seen as one means of imparting the
wisdom of experience, success and misfortune to less seasoned
engineers as they participate in new missions to Mars and elsewhere.
The key to good decision-making in space engineering, he says is not
only the knowledge gained in school, but the understanding that comes
from the real-life experiences of working day-to-day on a flight mission.
As Whetsel puts it, "There's certain level of healthy paranoia
I think it's important to keep. The people you really want on your team
are the ones who are really bothered by things like 'Why does that
telemetry point always read a little different from those other ones?
Is that trying to tell me something?' Or 'What have I not tested.
I know they say this will handle these five faults all the way out to
this range, but which one breaks first? What if?' Those are the kinds
of things you want questioned. But you have to have a balance where
you aren't just accepting everything that comes your way or challenging
everything, but knowing what to accept and what to challenge,"
"Then," says Landano, "when you get to be an
older guy like me and other guys who've been through it two, three or
even four or five times, we think we understand it. And then, we find
out that in spite of all we think we know there are a whole bunch of
things you don't know you don't know. They're the things that can
kill you. Now you begin to get what you call wisdom. You've' been
through it enough to say, 'You know, I'm not as smart as I think I am.
I'd better have a way to deal with the things I don't know I don't
So how to accommodate for those things you don't know you
don't know and still get a spacecraft to Mars? Landano's
answer: "Margin, margin, margin."